The Grilled Cheese

The Grilled Cheese http://www.slgraham.net Most recent posts at The Grilled Cheese posterous.com Sat, 11 Feb 2012 15:10:00 -0800 Whoever has the ball last is gonna win. (Duh?) http://www.slgraham.net/101145856 http://www.slgraham.net/101145856

"Whoever has the ball last in this game is going to win."

That's what we usually hear from ESPN football analysts before a game between two high-caliber offenses. But is it a rare occurrence for the winning team to have the ball last? I don't want question the logic (that might require a separate post); I'm more interested in what happens to ball possession at the very end of games. So I did some digging in the free play-by-play data provided by Armchair Analysis.com.

69% of all games from 2000-2010 ended with the winning team on offense or with a scoring play by the winning team. Except in the very rare case of a tie (yes, Donavan, that is possible), by rule overtime games must end with a scoring play by the winning team, so let's remove those from the equation: 68% of non-overtime games ended with the winning team on offense or with a scoring play. As the figure below shows, these frequencies have been remarkably consistent over the past 11 years.

Ball_last_winning_percentage

We now know that the two thirds of games end with the winning team in possession of the ball. But we can also interpret the analysts' prediction as "whoever scores at the end of the game is going to win," or in other words, "this contest will end with a game-winning score." How often does that happen? As you might imagine, much less frequently than mere possession. Only 8% of all games (and 3% of non-overtime games) end with a game-winning score. Compare this with the 62% of games (non-overtime of course) that end with a kneel-down, and it appears that the very ends of football games are often meaningless.

Gamewinning_kneel_percentage

This was a very basic analysis, and there are a number of complexities to consider that might result in a more precise representation. For example, in some cases the winning teams scores and kicks off with a few seconds left on the clock. Such cases did not count here. Accounting for them would require defining an acceptable amount of time remaining following "game-ending possession" by the winning team.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/99106/6220_588013788522_3109103_34656184_503215_n.jpg http://posterous.com/users/k2O5zdMrgl Spencer Spencer Sat, 21 Jan 2012 15:31:00 -0800 Memories of Memories http://www.slgraham.net/memories-of-memories http://www.slgraham.net/memories-of-memories

Eventually are these the only ones we'll have left? Does there come a time when all we can recall is the experience of remembering?

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/99106/6220_588013788522_3109103_34656184_503215_n.jpg http://posterous.com/users/k2O5zdMrgl Spencer Spencer Mon, 16 Jan 2012 18:22:00 -0800 A good news network http://www.slgraham.net/a-good-news-network http://www.slgraham.net/a-good-news-network

Last May I wrote about news, but the post never made it on this site. I think it's still relevant, so here it is...

In light of the recent tall-bearded-asshole-killing events, I began thinking again about something that's run through my mind a few times over the last couple years.

Why is it that the vast majority of the news we see is bad? (I cannot cite any official studies or assessment of that, but for the purposes of this discussion perception is more relevant than the straight facts.) For me, and for many others I'm sure, this is especially the case for political, social, and economic news. The unending battles between ideologies, "unbiased" news networks, and politicians themselves have yielded little to smile about in a long long time. Even the good things we hear about often have significant and vocal losers.

In fact, in my experience, the death of Osama bin Laden is the only unilaterally (not counting his supporters, but fuck 'em) good news we have experienced in a long while. Even for those understandably uncomfortable overtly celebrating the death of a human being, this is also a story of American persistence, courage, ingenuity, planning, and most importantly long-awaited success. But eventually the excitement will fade, and news outlets will turn back to reporting on the poor state of the economy, the cynical political games in Washington, murders, and missing children. Yuck.

All this bad news is a big reason why Jon Stewart and Steven Colbert are so successful. People don't want to ignore the news, but they don't want to be get depressed every time they turn on the TV. The Daily Show and The Colbert Report tell us what's going on, but they let us to laugh at it instead of crying.

Sports news is another way to stay connected with the world without falling into a negativity spiral. In contrast to standard news, sports news is usually about good stuff. Occasionally we learn about steroids and cheaters, but mostly we get to see spectacular plays, recaps of great performances, and celebrations.

One medium for good news that has yet to take off is the show, blog, or channel that reports only on the good stuff. The babies saved from burning buildings, the recent medical breakthroughs that promise to save lives, the crops that terrible rainstorm helped grow, even, if they could get the footage, the scoop of ice cream that did NOT fall off little Johnny's cone.

Since writing, I discovered a website which does exactly what the last paragraph describes! It's called the Good News Network (no Jesus affiliation). Check it out!

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/99106/6220_588013788522_3109103_34656184_503215_n.jpg http://posterous.com/users/k2O5zdMrgl Spencer Spencer Mon, 02 May 2011 14:07:00 -0700 Otherwise known as advances in experimental psych methodology http://www.slgraham.net/otherwise-known-as-advances-in-experimental-p http://www.slgraham.net/otherwise-known-as-advances-in-experimental-p

Media_httpwwwpopscico_gpwbj

This new tech seems equally promising for immersive gaming, Minority Report style workstations, and keeping psych experiment participants' eyes in the center of the screen for once!

The pico projector is motorized, so as the camera tracks a player’s line of vision, the view of the gaming world shifts to follow their gaze. It does not require them to hold anything, or have anything attached to them. The students have tested the system with a first-person shooter game, which this system seems perfectly suited for, as well as a flight simulator where the player controls the pitch and roll of an aircraft by moving their head.

Pop Sci via Gizmodo

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/99106/6220_588013788522_3109103_34656184_503215_n.jpg http://posterous.com/users/k2O5zdMrgl Spencer Spencer Sat, 19 Mar 2011 15:38:00 -0700 Bordering on irony http://www.slgraham.net/bordering-on-irony http://www.slgraham.net/bordering-on-irony

P58

I explored my neighborhood for the first time when I wasn't hurrying to get out of the cold. I stopped by some smaller shops and felt that warm neighborhoody feeling.

Then I saw the Borders plastered with "closing" and "everything must go" signs, so went in to check it out. What I saw was amazing. Still more signs hanging from every shelf (which were on sale too) and ceiling square. People scouring the store for books. I felt like I was in a special Capitalism version of a Discovery Channel wildlife show. We were vultures and carrion-eating insects picking at the company's gaping carcass.

But the most interesting part of that experience was this: I bought a book. Me, the guy who hasn't read a physical book in over a year (replaced with iBooks and audiobooks), bought one.

The irony: It took the closing of one of the biggest bookstore chains in the country to get me to buy a physical book.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/99106/6220_588013788522_3109103_34656184_503215_n.jpg http://posterous.com/users/k2O5zdMrgl Spencer Spencer Sat, 12 Mar 2011 18:38:50 -0800 St. Patty's green river http://www.slgraham.net/st-pattys-green-river http://www.slgraham.net/st-pattys-green-river

Media_httpdistillerys_aavcv

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/99106/6220_588013788522_3109103_34656184_503215_n.jpg http://posterous.com/users/k2O5zdMrgl Spencer Spencer Fri, 11 Mar 2011 17:25:38 -0800 I didn't know the Japan earthquake hit a tiny part of Chicago http://www.slgraham.net/i-didnt-know-the-japan-earthquake-hit-a-tiny http://www.slgraham.net/i-didnt-know-the-japan-earthquake-hit-a-tiny

Media_httpdistillerys_honyb

Taken at The Merchandise Mart

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/99106/6220_588013788522_3109103_34656184_503215_n.jpg http://posterous.com/users/k2O5zdMrgl Spencer Spencer Tue, 15 Feb 2011 09:56:43 -0800 Somebody's fired http://www.slgraham.net/somebodys-fired http://www.slgraham.net/somebodys-fired

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/99106/6220_588013788522_3109103_34656184_503215_n.jpg http://posterous.com/users/k2O5zdMrgl Spencer Spencer Sun, 06 Feb 2011 12:24:53 -0800 Can you see it? http://www.slgraham.net/can-you-see-it http://www.slgraham.net/can-you-see-it

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/99106/6220_588013788522_3109103_34656184_503215_n.jpg http://posterous.com/users/k2O5zdMrgl Spencer Spencer Sat, 05 Feb 2011 18:31:54 -0800 Is it just me or does this seem like a bad idea? http://www.slgraham.net/is-it-just-me-or-does-this-seem-like-a-bad-id http://www.slgraham.net/is-it-just-me-or-does-this-seem-like-a-bad-id

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/99106/6220_588013788522_3109103_34656184_503215_n.jpg http://posterous.com/users/k2O5zdMrgl Spencer Spencer Fri, 04 Feb 2011 13:05:00 -0800 Satisfaction and venue size http://www.slgraham.net/satisfaction-and-venue-size http://www.slgraham.net/satisfaction-and-venue-size

Media_httpwwwglidemag_bmvhc

In August, at Lollapalooza, I noticed something interesting about my satisfaction with the shows I went to. They were all really good, but, unsurprisingly, I had a better time at the shows during which I was closer to the stage. What was interesting was that my sense of "close" changed depending on the size of the stage. I was super-psyched to be 15 rows back for Phoenix, but only tepidly excited to be 15 rows back for Frightened Rabbit. The difference was that while Phoenix played on a main stage, Frightened Rabbit played on a smaller side stage. So what I was doing was comparing my place in the crowd to everybody else.

Could it be that my enjoyment and excitement was a function of the "privilege" I felt relative to the people around me? I would like to say no, but I think the answer is yes, and it's probably a similar phenomenon to how our sense of wealth works. Though we might be doing pretty well compared to somebody in a third world country, if we aren't as rich as our neighbors we tend to feel less good about our selves. In the same way, fans way at the back of the crowd are certainly enjoying the music more than those who aren't even at the show, but they may feel less excited than they should when they see people closer to the stage.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/99106/6220_588013788522_3109103_34656184_503215_n.jpg http://posterous.com/users/k2O5zdMrgl Spencer Spencer Thu, 03 Feb 2011 10:00:00 -0800 Relative Commonality http://www.slgraham.net/relative-commonality http://www.slgraham.net/relative-commonality

Have you ever run into somebody from school outside of school? Somebody that you don't know that well, and never really talk to? But you talked to them when you ran into them on the street? Isn't that weird? If you don't talk to them at school, then why did you talk to them on the street?

There are two possibilities:

1. You ran into them with your car, and were obligated to ask them if their hip was broken.

2. Relative Commonality. We interact with people with whom we have certain things in common. Shared hobbies, experiences, interests, race, etcetera*. The more important these common things are, the more likely we are to talk to the person who shares them. But what determines which things are important and how important they are? In part, the situation. Or more precisely, who else is around us.

Commonality is a relative phenomenon. Everybody we see in school is associated with the school, so there is nothing special about somebody at the school being associated with the school. So why talk to somebody if that is all you share? But on the street, very few people are associated with the school. In the given situation, that is a unique commonality. You have more in common with that person relative to other people.

My hypothesis: in a given situation, we interact with the people with whom we share the most unique commonality.

If I'm dressed in purple and so are you, then we'll probably say something to each other.

If everybody is dressed in purple, then the chances that we will speak go way down. But if we also are both wearing SF Giants hats, then again we will probably speak.

If everybody is in purple and wearing a Giants hat, then the chances go down again. But if we also both attended the same high school, then again we will probably speak.

If we are at the high school reunion, everybody is dressed in purple and wearing a Giants hat, then the chances go down again. But if we also played on the same soccer team for 4 years...

If we are at the soccer team reunion after-party... But if we also both love collecting stamps...

...and so on...

*I quite like the way "etcetera" looks. I'm going to discontinue abbreviating it.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/99106/6220_588013788522_3109103_34656184_503215_n.jpg http://posterous.com/users/k2O5zdMrgl Spencer Spencer Wed, 02 Feb 2011 17:57:00 -0800 USA! USA! USA! (or good evidence that our country IS the greatest) http://www.slgraham.net/usa-usa-usa-or-good-evidence-that-our-country http://www.slgraham.net/usa-usa-usa-or-good-evidence-that-our-country

via marginalrevolution.com

Here, courtesy of Catherine Rampell of Economix, is a remarkable chart from Branko Milanovic's book The Haves and Have Nots. Along the horizontal axis are within-country income percentiles running from the bottom 5% (1st ventile) to the top 5% (20th ventile). Along the vertical axis are world income percentiles.

The graph shows that the bottom 5% of Brazilians are among the poorest people in the world but the top 5% are among the richest. Thus the vertical range of the curve tells us about within-country inequality.

Comparing between countries we see that the poorest 5% of Americans are among the richest people in the world (richer than nearly 70% of other people in the world). The poorest 5% of Americans, for example, are richer than the richest 5% of Indians.

Sometimes, among the political crappiness, shootings, and obesity, it is easy to start longing for a better way of doing things. But don't let that longing turn to blindness. If our poorest citizens are better off than the some of the richest in other countries, then clearly we are doing something right.

Another lesson we can learn here is to not be overly swayed by the "evils" of income inequality. My freshman year of high school we had to take a class on Community Service Learning. We had a number of choices of topics, from environmental to women's issues. I chose basic human needs. Our teacher kept drilling us that there were too many people out there who didn't have access to the essentials of life. And I agreed. But then one class he told us how the essentials were always changing, how nowadays, for example, cell phones were becoming a necessity. That's where he lost me.

Every advance we make improves our lives to some extent. Every year our lives are getting better thanks to new technologies, medications, and institutions. But our basic human needs never change, because they are...basic. So while it might not be ideal that our richest are much richer than our poor, we cannot forget that our poor are doing pretty well compared to much of the rest of the world, and they are doing extremely well compared to 500 or even 100 years ago.

For more on this (sort of) subject, read this fantastic article by Marginal Revolution's Tyler Cowen.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/99106/6220_588013788522_3109103_34656184_503215_n.jpg http://posterous.com/users/k2O5zdMrgl Spencer Spencer Sat, 15 Jan 2011 20:55:18 -0800 One of the weirdest fortune cookies fortunes I've ever seen. http://www.slgraham.net/one-of-the-weirdest-fortune-cookies-fortunes http://www.slgraham.net/one-of-the-weirdest-fortune-cookies-fortunes

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/99106/6220_588013788522_3109103_34656184_503215_n.jpg http://posterous.com/users/k2O5zdMrgl Spencer Spencer Sat, 21 Aug 2010 16:54:00 -0700 Today's view is a little different... http://www.slgraham.net/todays-view-is-a-little-different http://www.slgraham.net/todays-view-is-a-little-different

Bleachers row 11

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/99106/6220_588013788522_3109103_34656184_503215_n.jpg http://posterous.com/users/k2O5zdMrgl Spencer Spencer Fri, 20 Aug 2010 20:07:38 -0700 New Giants hat is 1-0! http://www.slgraham.net/new-giants-hat-is-1-0 http://www.slgraham.net/new-giants-hat-is-1-0

Beat the Cards 6-3.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/99106/6220_588013788522_3109103_34656184_503215_n.jpg http://posterous.com/users/k2O5zdMrgl Spencer Spencer Wed, 18 Aug 2010 19:15:00 -0700 Isn't this a bad tagline for SPAM? http://www.slgraham.net/isnt-this-a-bad-tagline-for-spam http://www.slgraham.net/isnt-this-a-bad-tagline-for-spam

Spam

Is a uniform, gelatinous, glob of "meat" not the archetype of monotonous? I guess if you're marketing SPAM, you have to take a few leaps here and there.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/99106/6220_588013788522_3109103_34656184_503215_n.jpg http://posterous.com/users/k2O5zdMrgl Spencer Spencer Wed, 18 Aug 2010 14:27:16 -0700 Who would ever want to buy one of these? http://www.slgraham.net/who-would-ever-want-to-buy-one-of-these http://www.slgraham.net/who-would-ever-want-to-buy-one-of-these

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/99106/6220_588013788522_3109103_34656184_503215_n.jpg http://posterous.com/users/k2O5zdMrgl Spencer Spencer Thu, 05 Aug 2010 07:14:00 -0700 Lollapalooza http://www.slgraham.net/lollapalooza http://www.slgraham.net/lollapalooza

See the full gallery on Posterous

IMG_0027.mov Watch on Posterous

Chicago for Lollapalooza 2010

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/99106/6220_588013788522_3109103_34656184_503215_n.jpg http://posterous.com/users/k2O5zdMrgl Spencer Spencer Fri, 16 Jul 2010 14:23:00 -0700 Skywalking http://www.slgraham.net/23161383 http://www.slgraham.net/23161383

What do you think this sign means?

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/99106/6220_588013788522_3109103_34656184_503215_n.jpg http://posterous.com/users/k2O5zdMrgl Spencer Spencer